Trade-off between precision and resolution of a solar power forecasting algorithm for micro-grid optimal control - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Energies Année : 2020

Trade-off between precision and resolution of a solar power forecasting algorithm for micro-grid optimal control

, , (1) , ,
1
Jean Laurent Duchaud
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1022852
Cyril Voyant
Gilles Notton
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1084516
Alexis Fouilloy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Marie Laure Nivet
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 865253

Résumé

With the development of micro-grids including PV production and storage, the need for efficient energy management strategies arises. One of their key components is the forecast of the energy production from very short to long term. The forecast time-step is an important parameter affecting not only its accuracy but also the optimal control time discretization, hence its efficiency and computational burden. To quantify this trade-off, four machine learning forecast models are tested on two geographical locations for time-steps varying from 2 to 60 min and horizons from 10 min to 6 h, on global irradiance horizontal and tilted when data was available. The results are similar for all the models and indicate that the error metric can be reduced up to 0.8% per minute on the time-step for forecasts below one hour and up to 1.7% per ten minutes for forecasts between one and six hours. In addition, it is shown that for short term horizons, it may be advantageous to forecast with a high resolution then average the results at the time-step needed by the energy management system.

Dates et versions

hal-03041890 , version 1 (05-12-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Jean Laurent Duchaud, Cyril Voyant, Gilles Notton, Alexis Fouilloy, Marie Laure Nivet. Trade-off between precision and resolution of a solar power forecasting algorithm for micro-grid optimal control. Energies, 2020, 13 (14), pp.3565. ⟨10.3390/en13143565⟩. ⟨hal-03041890⟩
17 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More